So how long will I spend in prison? Navigating the new early release scheme

Having worked in criminal law for more than 20 years, advising a client who had just received an immediate custodial sentence used to be relatively straightforward. In most cases, the advice was simple: you would serve half of your sentence in custody. For the majority of sentences under four years, there was also the possibility of early release on an electronically monitored tag.

The sentencing landscape changed with the introduction of Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) under the Criminal Justice Act 2003, followed by the replacement of IPPs with extended determinate sentences under the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012. Suddenly, sentence calculations became far more complicated. We had to explain that offenders would typically serve two-thirds of their custodial term before becoming eligible for parole consideration, alongside the prospect of extended licence periods after release. It was around this point that that GCSE in Maths started becoming much more important.

With these changes came longer periods spent in prison. At the same time, increasing political pressure to appear tough on crime led to more custodial sentences being imposed. The prison population grew, but unfortunately the prison estate did not.

The result was a prison system pushed to the brink. By spring 2024, prison staff were openly discussing the fact that available prison places across the country were down to double figures. Local remand prisons were full, and defendants awaiting trial in Manchester were being housed more than two hours away. Although video technology improved significantly following the pandemic, there are still many cases where face-to-face visits remain essential.

This crisis forced the then Lord Chancellor, Shabana Mahmood, to announce that certain prisoners would be released after serving 40% of their sentence. What was initially presented as a temporary emergency measure to reduce prison overcrowding soon became a more permanent feature of the system.

Judges adapted their sentencing remarks accordingly. The phrase became: "You will serve up to 50% of your sentence." In reality, that often meant, "I'll leave it to your lawyers to work out exactly what that means for you." Time to get the calculator out again.

Did it help? Not really.

Many of those released early soon found themselves back in custody, either for committing further offences or for breaching the conditions of their licence. More people continued to be sent to prison, prisoner numbers increased, and the prison estate remained largely unchanged.

Further reform followed with the Sentencing Act 2026, which received Royal Assent in January 2026.

The Act introduced several significant changes. Custodial sentences can now be suspended for up to three years rather than two. There is also a presumption that sentences of less than 12 months should be suspended. Most significantly, however, further changes were made to early release provisions.

The new release scheme was delayed until 1 October 2026, largely due to public concern about sexual offenders becoming eligible for earlier release and the inclusion of two of the young men convicted of the tragic killing of PC Andrew Harper.

Under the new arrangements:

• Standard determinate sentences move from release after serving 40% of the sentence to 33% (one third).
• Certain serious violent and sexual offences, excluding offences such as manslaughter, rape and serious child sexual offences, move from release at 67% (two thirds) of the sentence to 50%.

These changes will place further demands on an already underfunded and overstretched Probation Service through the introduction of "intensive supervision in the community", followed by the final stage of the sentence, referred to simply as the licence period in the community.

To be blunt, this final phase sounds remarkably similar to the old "probation reset" approach frequently seen in the Magistrates' Court, where supervision effectively ceases unless something goes wrong.

The Government has assured the public that intensive supervision will help reassure victims. Measures include exclusion zones, electronic tagging, non-contact requirements, and alcohol and drug testing.

However, questions remain. If an individual convicted of domestic abuse is already willing to breach a restraining order, what exactly will make them comply with the requirements of intensive supervision?

So, will this new scheme work?

It is far too early to tell.

One recently released prisoner from HMP Wandsworth was interviewed outside the prison by the BBC, promising never to return. A day later, he was caught on CCTV shoplifting. Police then spent an entire day searching for him. On the fourth day after his release, he received an eight-month custodial sentence.

Whether that is an isolated incident or a sign of what is to come remains to be seen.